High?Resolution Climate Projections Over Minnesota for the 21st Century

Minnesota is the state with strongest winter warming in contiguous United States. We performed regional climate projections at 10 km horizontal resolution using Weather Research Forecasting model forced eight CMIP5 GCMs. The selected GCMs have previously been found to be relatively good agreement observations over compared other members of ensemble. Our suggest ongoing all seasons, especially winter, as well shallower snow depth and fewer days cover. expect significant increases spring early summer heavy precipitation events. comparisons between different time slices two emission scenarios indicate a for near end 21st century that significantly from what has observed by 20th century. Winters summers are expected up 6 4°C warmer, respectively, northern central Minnesota, may increase more than 1 mm d?1 Minnesota. Especially part state, projected decrease 12 cm, number per year 2.54 cm (one inch) 55.